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The thinking of value investing



value investing

The epidemic continues to spread, the population of new crown infections keeps growing, and the world's economy is facing a huge cold winter. During this period, the death of black people in the United States even changed from anti-epidemic to protest, and economic and social life has always been difficult to return to the right track. But what is surprising is that the US Nasdaq index has gone out of the V-shaped reversal in just over two months, hitting a record high.

Looking at the record, some customers left the market in the stage of the world epic plunge in mid-March, and recently reluctantly added the position back, the difference between the previous one and the next 10-15%, this is almost a return The average return of a good fund manager in a year.

Sometimes, we always take a look at ourselves, thinking that we can sell high and sell low to make a difference, and even straighten the stock index line, but in the end, it is a fierce operation, all afterward. Two hundred and five. Some people in the stock market often say, "The banker seems to be staring at my hundreds of shares. I don't sell, I don't go up, I go up as soon as I sell." 

Although it is a joke, it proves that although there are thousands of retail investors, they don't know each other There is no contact with each other, but in this group, a large part of the people's psychological capacity and pressure limit and behavior under pressure are strikingly similar.

In the past few years of investment, I have gradually moved to the full operation of spare funds. During this period, I experienced a trade war between China and the United States, the new crown epidemic at home and abroad, and other crises, because I believe in the underlying logic of investment. source".

 The money earned by luck is always lost back by strength, and this is the reason. A gambler occasionally wins by luck in the casino, he will link the result to his unique vision and skill. Just like many so-called high-throwing, low-absorption masters, drawing lines and pictures, saying how much their technical means or spiritual feelings are like. 

The gambler He Hongshen will tell the gambler, you try again and again, the rules of the casino will tell you, your winning side is 49%, my winning side is 51%, even if this 2% gap you can pass again and again Note, lose your old books cleanly. Pitiful is pitiful because some people take their gambling too much after winning the first bet, and a certain comfortable profit will eventually lay the groundwork for a big defeat in the future.

Therefore, we must figure out why we are profitable and why we are losing money. The investment must be on the side with the greatest winning potential and do the right thing for a long time. The economic cycle, the ups, and downs of the stock market are natural laws and cannot be accurately predicted.


 If the economy is not good, we will adjust against the cycle, but it is not that we have made policy, and the economy will recover. This requires a process, but no one can say how long this process is. After buying a good stock or a good fund, it may still fall, and no one knows how much it fell.

 What we know is that it will hit a new high in a few years. The money we make with a strategy is also bound to lose money because the strategy does not match the market conditions. For example, if we buy a hedge fund, we may not have to experience a painful decline when the market plummets, but we will not be able to keep up with the rhythm of the market when the market rises.

And how to do a good investment, I still believe that learning and being able to establish your own set of correct investment strategies and ideas and the value of investment thinking is the most important.

Munger said, "The best way to get something is to equip yourself with it." Please believe the meaning of hard work, please believe the compound interest of time, when one day you deserve it, you will naturally have it.

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