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What is the average cost method?



Due to the recent plunge in the global market, I noticed that some people came out to promote an investment method called the fool-style stock disaster investment method. The thinking behind it is similar to other lazy investment methods, or monthly stocks/funds, just to change the saying, I will dismantle the problems behind you one by one.

Let you see the risks you need to bear, first look at the logic behind this method. Its approach is this when the market drops 10%, you invest 20% of the funds to buy stock market ETFs when the market drops 20%, you invest another 20% when the market drops 30%, you invest another 20%, And so on. Until the market drops by 50%, you will put all the funds into the market, and when your average cost is equal to the market drops by 30%, you will buy all the funds in the market ETF (that is, All in).

It is a kind of average cost method. The principle of this method is that, first, he believes that the maximum decline in the market is about 50%. After that, it will no longer fall, so it is safe to buy market ETFs at this time. Secondly, as long as you buy every 10% decline, you can successfully bargain.

 Third, the cost is averaged to reduce the cost of some expensive betting codes. It sounds like a strategy, but please wait, think carefully, the following fallacies I and you disassemble, the danger of the stock market is that you sometimes use the wrong method, because of luck, the market can make You make money, this is miserable.

If someone tried to make money in this way. He will later feel that using this averaging down strategy is the correct behavior, and never knows what he is wrong.

What kind of thinking a person has will prompt him to do what kind of behavior, and those behaviors will be doomed, whether you are a long-term winner or a long-term loser in the stock market? what is the problem? The biggest problem is that one time you will buy a stock/index ETF with the same thinking. After falling 50%, you will fall another 50%, and then you can still fall another 50%. 

This is an error that continuously magnifies Dangerous behavior is completely a bet, betting that one time is correct. Many people have lost their entire net worth because of this behavior. Perhaps many people's awareness of the stock market disaster has only stayed in the last decade or eight years, or the bull market in the US stock market in the last 10 years. Those who advocate these methods will make history. The data demonstrates how safe these methods are.

Then I will take some historical data and show you the real examples of the past. This is the Japanese stock market in the 1990s. You can see that in the early 1990s, it was about 40,000 points. In 2003, its lowest position fell to 7,600 points. During the 13 years, it fell by more than -80%. 

Today, 17 years later, the Nikkei index is still only about 20,000 points. This example allows you to see that even in a mature market, the index can be halved from 40,000 points to 20,000 points, and then halved to 10,000 points, after which it can continue to fall by 25%. The fool-style stock disaster investment method.

After an average drop of 30%, all the funds are put into the market, that is, at about 28,000 points, all your assets can be evaporated by more than -70%, and after 30 years, you are still losing money. Let’s look at another example. This is a Malaysian index ETF. Let’s look at the stock market crash in 1997. It can fall from $64 to $8. In short, from $64 to 50% to $32. It fell 50% to $16 and then fell 50% to $8. To 23 years later, this ETF is only about $26 on the blue line.

According to the average cost and flattening strategy just now, your average cost is about $44. From $44 to $8, your loss is -83.6%. Another lesson from this example is not to think that the market index has fallen There is a limit. Don't ignore the exchange rate risk. In the case of the Malaysian market, in addition to the decline in the index, the exchange rate also fell at the same time, resulting in a "double kill of stocks and exchanges."

I don’t know which country’s currency you use. When you buy ETFs in other markets, you will also bear the risk of the exchange rate. Taking this example as an example, when the Asian financial turmoil, many Southeast Asian countries’ currencies depreciated significantly. The stock market also fell sharply. If you take a dip in emerging markets at this time, almost all will be lost, you might say that it was because of Soros that year, and it may not be the next time.

Let me show you one more example. This is the Brazilian market where many newcomers have been encouraged or promoted to buy in the past ten years. Let’s not talk about Brazilian funds, let’s look at Brazil’s ETF first. From 2000 to 2002, it fell from $20 to less than $6, a drop of more than 70%. It can also be slashed, and then slashed again, a total of -73%. During the period, the Brazilian real also depreciated significantly.

Let’s take a closer look. From 2011 to 2016, this Brazilian ETF fell from about $80 to less than $20. It can also be cut down, and then cut down again. Today, this ETF is only $30. You may not understand, Brazil’s index has reached a record high in recent years. The reason why this ETF is still at a low level is simply that Brazil’s currency has depreciated significantly over the past 10 years unless you are a Brazilian native and use Brazilian currency, or You are investing in Brazilian currency.

Of course, this risk is much higher, because Brazil’s interest rate is very high. Before 2017, its interest rate was more than 14%. Maybe you will feel that it is safer to buy these markets. It may be safer to buy in the US market, but if you are like this If you want to, I will tell you in an old-fashioned tone. Juvenile, you are too young. Looking at the US Nasdaq in 2000, you will see that even the seemingly safe US market can also be cut, and then cut again, with a drop of more than -78%. Of course, the probability of repeating the burst of Kwang stocks is not high.

I also like to invest in the US stock market myself, but I want to tell you that there is no such thing as "it will never happen" in this world. Even if it seems like the Great Depression in 1929, there is a chance to repeat it in the next few decades. This is no one can guarantee that it will not happen. Other so-called monthly stocks, monthly funds, and lazy investment laws will also make you fall into the above. Among the risks.

You can think about why some people put forward these proposals, and who is the biggest beneficiary? Banks, brokerages, and fund companies let’s visit friends and relatives around you without looking at the people in the media who promote this method.

Statistics, how many people make money in the long run? How many people lose money for a long time? What is their annual return for making money?

If they lose money, how much did they lose? I can tell you that I have done real statistics myself and interviewed more than 100 people. In the past 5 to 10 years, most of the people in this class have book losses and a few have profitable people. On average, the annual return is only 4 to 8%. If you are a Hong Kong person, you may wish to look at your provident fund. Are you satisfied with the average annual return in the past? Or ask the people around them, their provident fund account. What about performance?

What I want to bring out is that investing is a lifetime thing or at least something you will do in the next few decades, as long as it is only a successful move in your investment career. It is enough to evaporate the wealth you have accumulated over the years. If you have no sense of risk, let your investment fall by -50%. In the next few decades, your finances will always have a chance to get into big trouble. Use simple math to calculate:

If your investment falls by -50%, you have to use a 100% return to recover.

If it falls by -70%, you have to use a 333% return to recover.

If it drops -80%, you have to use a 500% return to get it back.

If it falls by -90%, you have to use a 1000% return to recover, which is 10 times.

In the whole process, you not only lose a lot of money but also spend a lot of time recovering your vitality. The emotional stress and trauma in the process can not be calculated. Those advocates do not need to bear any responsibility for your losses, but you have to take 100% responsibility for your investment decisions, so my advice to everyone is.

First, don’t be lazy or fool in investing. There is almost no chance in the world that you can develop without using your brain.

Second, be aware of what is useful and what is spam, because the information you receive affects your thinking, then your behavior, and finally your results.

Third, you must learn to master the best time to enter and exit.

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