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NIO stock forecast 2025: 2021 Q1 report analysis

 April 30, NIO announced the first quarter of the 2021 financial report.

 Revenue reached 7.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 481.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 20.2%; gross profit was 1.5548 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 36.2%, and last year was -167.5 million yuan; a net loss of 350 million yuan was significantly narrowed year-on-year and month-on-month.  Various indicators show that NIO's performance in the first quarter of this year is very impressive.

 Gross profit margin exceeds 20% for the first time

 NIO’s Q1 car sales were 7.40058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 489.8% and a month-on-month increase of 20.0%.  The gross profit margin of automobile sales was 21.2%, exceeding 20% ​​for the first time, a significant increase from -7.4% in Q1 of 2020 and 17.2% in Q4 of 2020.  In addition, Weilai's Q1 comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 will also reach 19.5%.

 The founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO said: A gross profit margin of more than 20% indicates that we have reached a state of relatively healthy operations.

 The rapid increase in Q1 gross profit margin was attributed to the increase in the average transaction price caused by the continuously rising delivery volume and the increase in the delivery volume of high-end models.  In addition, costs have also dropped.

 Increasing gross profit margin has been an operating indicator that NIO has focused on since last year. To this end, Weilai has taken several measures, including layoffs last year.  In Q2 of 2020, NIO's gross profit margin turned from negative to positive for the first time. By the end of last year, both the comprehensive gross profit margin and auto sales gross profit margin reached 17.2%.

 Q1 losses narrowed sharply

 While revenue and gross profit margin increased substantially, NIO's losses continued to narrow.  In 2021, the Q1 net loss was 451 million yuan, a decrease of 73.3% year-on-year and a decrease of 67.5% month-on-month.  Excluding share compensation expenses, the adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) was 354.6 million yuan, a decrease of 78.6% year-on-year (a loss of 1.659 billion yuan in Q1 last year) and a 73.3% decrease from the previous quarter (a loss of 1.328 billion yuan in Q4 last year).

  Judging from the situation in the first quarter, the net profit of NIO Q2 is expected to turn from negative to positive.

 Delivery in 2021 is expected to hit 100,000 vehicles

 In Q1 of 2021, Weilai delivered a total of 2,060 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 422.7% and a month-on-month increase of 15.6%.  Among them, ES8 delivered 4,516 vehicles, ES6 delivered 8088 vehicles, and EC6 delivered 7456 vehicles.

 At present, NIO’s orders continue to grow, and the main challenge in Q2 is still the supply chain risk brought about by global chip shortages.  

 On April 7 this year, NIO's 100,000th production car rolled off the assembly line.  Looking back at the delivery cycle of NIO, the first 50,000 units took 26 months, and the second 50,000 units took only 9 months.  

 In general, Q1 is the off-season, but NIO's delivery volume also exceeds 20,000 and is expected to reach 100,000 this year, which will create a sales record for high-end models of Chinese brands.

 The opening of the second factory by Weilai and its huge production capacity show that NIO has great confidence in the growth potential of its delivery volume.

 Expansion/recharging/recharging and after-sales network construction is steadily advancing

 For this year's development, the production and testing of NIO's first smart electric flagship sedan ET7 are in full swing.  The body of the first production line of the new car officially rolled off the assembly line on April 2 this year, and the interior design was unveiled for the first time on April 19, fully demonstrating the design concept of the ET7 second living room.

 Due to the short-term impact of the chip, the NIO factory suspended production for five working days between the end of March and the beginning of April. 

 During the shutdown and holidays, NIO and its partners have transformed the factory's production line to prepare for the mass production of ET7.  Get ready.

 At the same time, the second-generation power station announced on 2021 NIO DAY has been deployed on April 15th.  The battery compartment of the second-generation replacement station can hold up to 13 batteries, and the daily service capacity of a single station can reach 312 times, which further shortens the replacement time.

 There is no need to get off the car for the whole process of the second-generation battery replacement. After all the vehicles are upgraded, one-key automatic parking and one-key self-service battery replacement can be realized.  

 As an important part of the NIO charging and swapping system, the second-generation swap station will be gradually launched nationwide in the future.

 At present, NIO has built 206 swap stations, covering 77 cities.  This year's goal for second-generation power stations is to increase to at least 500.  At the same time, NIO will increase the construction of overcharging networks and destination charging piles.  

 So far, NIO has deployed more than 146 overcharging stations and 1826 destination charging piles in China and plans to reach 600 and 15,000 by the end of 2021, respectively.

 On April 15, NIO and Sinopec formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and the two parties will work together to build a charging and swapping infrastructure.  

 This strategic cooperation will effectively guarantee the location resources of NIO's charging and swapping infrastructure, enhance the experience of electric vehicle users, and facilitate the further conversion of fuel vehicle users.

 NIO also released the Power North plan: In the next three years, NIO plans to deploy 100 power station swaps, 120 mobile charging vehicles, 500 overcharging stations, and more than 2,000 overcharging piles in eight provinces and regions in northern China.  And 10,000 destination charging piles.

 NIO currently has 23 NIO centers and 211 NIO spaces in terms of sales and service network, covering 123 cities in China.  At the same time, NIO currently has 33 NIO service centers and 162 authorized service centers.  

 Based on the continuous improvement of operational efficiency, NIO will continue to expand the after-sales service network layout in 2021 and further improve the after-sales service system.


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