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NIO stock forecast 2025: Core technologies


In terms of new forces in car manufacturing, industry participants have entered the fast lane in areas such as new product releases and intelligent driving. With the "general trend" of the popularization of electric vehicles, you will catch up. For NIO, which is the first to deploy the electric vehicle industry, whether ET7 can take the industry pioneer into the "overtaking lane" and continue to be at the forefront of the industry. Examining NIO's strategic measures is an effective way to try to find answers. Way, especially in the context of the “general trend” of electric vehicles.

 NIO's Core technologies:

 1. At present and for a period of time, the price, performance iteration, and supply of batteries and core raw materials will be the core factors that determine the popularization of pure electric vehicles, and determine a series of trends in the market and participants.

 Lithium is an indispensable and important element of power batteries. The commercialization of solid-state batteries will double the demand for lithium: Lithium batteries are the most mature technology route for electric vehicles at this stage. Nearly 80% of the world’s lithium resource production is mainly concentrated in the Four Lakes and Americas.  

 The traditional four lakes in South America and the six mines in Australia have been reshaped. Traditional lithium giants such as Albemarle, Livent, SQM, and other traditional lithium industry giants have clear guidelines for future capacity expansion; Australian mines Terryson and Marion are not for sale; Altura, Wodgina, and Bald hill mines are still in In the shutdown state, the release of new production capacity and the restart of shutdown production capacity will take time. 

 In the next five years, the growth rate of the overall supply side will be lower than the growth rate of the demand side, and the price changes of upstream raw materials and even the evolution of geopolitics will bring about The changes in the industry will be directly transmitted to the manufacturing costs of vehicle companies and will have an impact on a series of commercial actions including selling prices.

 2. Autonomous driving is listed as a core strategy by many new car manufacturers, but the underlying technologies of autonomous driving, such as chips and its supply, are still in the hands of Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea. New car manufacturers in China may not be able to maintain the forefront of the industry in the field of autonomous driving.

 NIO is not a representative company for full-stack development. Its ADAS needs the support of suppliers. From an industrial point of view, the core underlying technology and supply chain of autonomous driving is not in China’s hands, such as chip research and development and industrial chain. , And the chip plays a vital role in smart electric vehicles.

 3. Traditional fuel vehicle OEMs are increasingly making efforts to adjust the layout and strategy of electric vehicle product lines. Their profitability and brand appeal will strongly impact new domestic vehicle manufacturers, such as Volkswagen, Audi, and the United States. General Motors, the future evolution of the market share of electric vehicles is still unclear;

 4. The profit problem of NIO will be a long-term strategic problem. Even if its strategic plan is forward-looking in the industry, if it continues to be unprofitable and faces blood transfusions, it will be passive in the increasing competition;

 Failure to generate positive cash flow and make a profit will result in a passive situation in the financing, product development, technology research and development, and talent reserves. The passive situation will evolve into a passive situation in the industry competition. A passive situation in the industry means life and death.

 5. NIO’s mid-to-high-end product line planning and the establishment of luxury brand recognition rely on two points: First, it accurately enters the Chinese high-end self-owned brand pure electric vehicle market, and releases large-scale luxury SUV models with growth potential to meet consumer options. The second is to rely on NIO House / NIO Space, user online services, and community operations, and the third is to replace battery + solid-state batteries to solve mileage anxiety + smart driving + smart cockpit landing product differentiation, but given the continuing negative trend of NIO House / NIO Space With the outflow of cash flow, NIO will eventually need to face the inevitable option of balancing the cash flow and the strategic planning;

NIO's crucial moment

 On May 13, the first verified prototype of the NIO ET7 was officially off the assembly line at NIO's Hefei Advanced Manufacturing Base and entered the stage of production and commissioning. Prototype verification is an important part of the production preparation process before mass production. It is responsible for debugging, matching, and optimizing the vehicle's performance and the user's driving experience.

 As NIO’s first sedan and its first self-driving model, the starting price before the ET7 subsidy is RMB 448,000, and the starting price of the BaaS program is RMB 378,000 before the subsidy. In addition, the first release version is priced at 526,000 yuan before subsidies, and the BaaS program is priced at 398,000 yuan before subsidies. The vehicle is scheduled to be delivered in the first quarter of 2022. All ET7 series is equipped with 19 safety and driving assistance functions of NAD as standard. The complete functions of NAD will adopt the service subscription model of "monthly activation and monthly payment", and the service fee is 680 yuan per month.

 At the Shanghai Auto Show, Xiaopeng Motors’ third product, the world’s first mass-produced smart car equipped with lidar, Xiaopeng P5, was officially unveiled. Within 53 hours after the official booking was opened, the cumulative order exceeded 10,000, becoming Xiaopeng Motors has the most pre-booked models. This is an A+ class car, the world's first mass-produced smart electric car equipped with lidar. At the same time, P7 will be delivered in Norway in the second half of this year.

 As the two powerful forces of China's new car-making forces, from the release of new models to the phased implementation of autonomous driving technology, a sense of vision that you are chasing me in the fast lane has jumped out.

  However, who can drive into the overtaking lane and continue to lead the industry?

 NIO is the earliest start-up company in China to deploy pure electric vehicles.

 Similar to other new car-making forces, NIO has tied up with Tencent, one of the Chinese Internet giants, to obtain its strategic investment and support.

 The left hand marries Tencent's strategic investment to obtain Tencent's scenario-based technology empowerment and strategic resource matching, and the right-hand links Hefei's state-owned capital industrial strategic investors to enhance industrial capital and regional policy support and other aspects of the moat strength.

 Throughout the history of NIO’s capital operation from its establishment to the present, its core operating characteristics are: first, it fully reaches China’s top domestic investment institutions, which will have a potential impact on the financing operations of other competitors; second, it will be marketed earlier. Provide import and export for the re-operation of capital market financing.

 NIO Automotive executive team

 The senior management team of NIO is more balanced, able to take into account all dimensions of automobile manufacturing, covering everything from the supply chain, vehicle production, sales, software research and development, and vehicle design.

NIO Product line strategy

 Positioning, model release, and planning:

 In the mid-to-high-end new energy vehicle market, the price of mass-produced models on the market is 35.8-624,000 yuan. From the high-end market to the mid-to-high-end market, from SUV to car, the product matrix is ​​gradually improved. In the future, new models will be launched at the annual schedule, and models will also be extended to MPV and Coupe.

 Its SUV model ES8 fills the gap in the selection of high-end pure electric vehicles of China's own domestic brands. The product line meets consumer needs (license restrictions + intelligent cockpit + car cost comparison + consumer needs for large luxury SUVs).

 design:

 The fusion of extreme performance and a pleasant life emphasizes user experience. The products have a sense of technology and intelligence and cater to the aesthetics and preferences of young people. The use of panoramic sky screen, streamlined dynamic design, large central control screen, high-value and high-quality interiors, and other elements enhance the sense of experience.

 Production mode: coexistence of foundry and self-built.

 Both models have their own advantages. The foundry model can speed up mass production and reduce equipment purchases, and the self-built model can better control product quality. NIO uses the JAC foundry method.

 NIO's three-electric system is developed and produced in Nanjing Advanced Manufacturing Technology Center. The production scope includes battery PACK and EDS electric drive system.

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