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VRTX stock forecast 2025: Vertex is undervalued


Let's look at some biotech companies with stable cash flow and currently undervalued value stocks as targets for diversified portfolios.

 The company I shared today, called Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), is dedicated to the development of rare diseases, especially Cystic Fibrosis (CF).

I have always had high respect for the rare disease group of pharmaceutical companies in the disease category. In addition, in the future, gene and cell therapies are subverting the role of rare diseases in the pharmaceutical industry, making rare diseases no longer uncommon. It's tasteless, but a field full of the future.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. was established in 1989 by Joshua Boger and Kevin Kinsella.

is headquartered in Boston. At that time, several very good research and development companies were established in the United States, including the aforementioned Regeneron, Gilead, and today's Vertex.

 Vertex In the past, he devoted himself to the development of small molecule drugs, which are chemical compound drugs.

And the founder Joshua Boger at that time was the pioneer of structure drug design and was the first company to use Rational drug design, meaning that he was committed to the research of drug targets (3D structure, druggability, etc.), and then made drugs. Screening, and optimization of candidate drugs.

Vertex was the first to make infectious drugs, such as hepatitis C drugs. Later, I found the company's Driver in cystic fibrosis (cystic fibrosis). It can be said that it is the monopolist of cystic fibrosis (Cystic fibrosis).

Vertex Pharmaceutical, to be honest, although there are 3-4 kinds of drugs on the market, they are all for the treatment of cystic fibrosis CF. It is inevitable to be called a single-indication company by the market, which means that they only have products for cystic fibrosis CF.

Before the Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulators of Vertex came out, general CF could only treat symptoms, and CFTR modulators are really specific treatments in essence, which is a good gospel for patients.

 And VRTX's recent 3-in-1 drug Trikafta was launched at the end of 2019.

There are approximately 83,000 patients with CF among European and American Caucasians (among Americans, Europeans, Australians, and Canadians). After the 3-in-1 drug was launched in 2019, Vertex could only treat about 50% of CF patients. Treat 90% of patients.

 Let VRTX's 2020 revenue YOY have a 55% growth.

 It is estimated that after receiving benefits in various places in 2021, 2021 should be able to maintain a YOY growth of about 8-10%.

 At present, there are almost no threats to CFTR competitors in the market, and the fixed-dose combination patent of Trikafta can still reach 2025. I think CFTR will have a stable revenue contribution in the next 5 years, about single-digit growth.

As a market observer, especially for biotech companies. What we have to judge is, what exactly will Vertex's new driver be in the next five years? What can be based on CF Franchise and contribute to a growth rate of at least 10-15% in line with the annual growth rate CAGR.

 VRTX There are a few things to look forward to.

 After their strengths in small molecule drugs, Vertex added their new technology types of drugs for rare diseases, such as gene editing, microRNA, mRNA drugs, cell therapy, and so on.

And VRTX uses a lot of external cooperation, investment, and company mergers and acquisitions, etc., to serve their treatment strategy.

 For example, VRTX recently acquired Semma Therapeutics, a company that specializes in using stem cells to treat diabetes.

In addition, another well-known example is the cooperation with CRISPR therapeutics in vitro CRISPR editing to treat sickle cell disease and B-thalassemia. Their Proof of concept data published at the end of last year and a report on NEJM are considered to be Very Promising, I also got a lot of breakthrough designation from the FDA and so on to speed up the review tickets.

Moreover, there are quite a lot of patients in this disease category. There are about 25000-30000 severe patients in Europe and America.

 I personally think that patients will start using this type of therapy in 2023 at the earliest, and Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutic are the most advanced.

 If you are afraid of CRISPR companies such as CRISPR Therapeutics, EDITS BEAM, and Intellia, such as cashless companies, I suggest that you should put your own CRISPR gene editing concept stock Portion on Vertex.

 Finally, VRTX also has some small-molecule protein regulators developed by itself.

For example, the rare disease ratio Alpha-1 Antitrypsin deficiency, APOL1-mediated Kidney Disease's small molecule protein regulator, will also have important data published in 2021, which is the focus of Vertex that we need to pay attention to. If these two POCs in 2021 If the data is very good, plus the CRISPR treatment just mentioned, I believe that Vertex will welcome another growth period after 2024 and 2025.

Vertex is currently using the discounted cash flow for 5 years to calculate the fair value is about 400, the current stock price of 200 US dollars, I will first wait for him to stabilize the 120 antennae before starting to open a position, but I think he will not until there is any major breakthrough, In the range of 200-300 for a long time.

 In addition, I may pay attention to the time when some new data comes out in the middle of the year, and make a swing option.

 Well, VRTX is a high-value but underestimated biotechnology company.


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